A 2-axle touring coach has an unladen kerb weight of 13,200 kg (front axle 4,800 kg, rear drive axle 8,400 kg) and a maximum permissible gross weight of 18,000 kg (max front axle 7,100 kg, max rear axle 11,500 kg). If 50 passengers (average 75 kg each = 3,750 kg) board, and 1,200 kg of heavy ski luggage is loaded entirely in the rear overhang compartment, what is the critical axle load risk?

1. Total weight is 18,150 kg (overloaded by 150 kg), and the cantilevered rear luggage acts as a lever, exceeding the 11,500 kg rear axle limit while unweighting the steering axle below safe directional control limits
2. Both axles remain at exactly 50% load capacity
3. The front axle will exceed 10,000 kg
4. The bus will automatically tip over backwards while stationary